Consumers are sitting on the side­lines, and discretionary spending is down — neither is good news for mountain resorts eyeing the 2008-09 ski season.
  However, there is one variable that could change everything: snow. “Snow trumps all evils,” Ralf Garrison said this week in the Mountain Travel Symposium’s 2008-09 travel-outlook session.
  Despite the gloomy economic indicators, if there was a choice between a good economy or snow, choose snow, said Garrison, princi­pal of the Mountain Travel Research Project, which provided data for the symposium.
  Last ski season, the National Ski Areas Association reported a record 60.5 million skier and boarder visits despite a weak economy.
  “Snow is the key that unlocks the paradoxes,” Garrison said, adding that it is not just the cold, white stuff on the ground which attracts skiers, but the “snow mentality.”
  “Snow is more than weather; it is a state of mind,” he said. “As people decide what to do with their time and money, they are going to do what they are pas­sionate about.” The key for ski and mountain destinations trying to survive a possible a flat year is to change skiers’ perceptions, convincing them that they need a vacation.
  Arthur Cassidy, a social psy­chologist, said there is an idea that, when you’re not feeling good about life, you need to take care of yourself. Then, vaca­tions become “doc­tor’s orders,” Garrison explained.
  Harley-Davidson Motorcycles, in a recent full-page newspaper ad, caught this mentality with copy that says “… freedom and wind outlast hard times, and the rumble of an engine drowns out all the spin on the evening news … So screw it, let’s ride.”
  After an initial drop, sales have leveled out because Harley-David­son found the way to get to the heart and passion of their market, Garri­son said.
  Harley-Davidson played on the notion that motorcycles are not dis­cretionary — a good tactic, because as spending drops, discretionary spending gets hit the worst.
  “We fall prey to that at least as long as we fail to challenge that a ski or mountain vacation is discre­tionary. We might organize our­selves as a want or even a need,” Garrison said to mountain travel­industry leaders during the seminar.
 Economic factors
  The sub-prime mortgage prob­lem that began the economy’s woes has led to an all-time low in consumer confidence, Garrison said. The Consumer Confidence Index, released on Tuesday, is 60.8 percent lower than in October 2007, dropping a record 23.4 points since last quarter.
  “Consumers are extremely pessimistic … and this news does not bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challeng­ing holiday season,” the Con­sumer Confidence Conference Board said.
  Consumer spending makes up seventy percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.
  “In the last eight months, we’ve begun the death spiral (in spending),” Garrison said.
  The Mountain Travel Research Project shows that through Sept. 30, bookings were down 11.1 per­cent for the travel period of November through March.
  Last year, they slumped 2.7 percent in those same months. However, bookings in October and November stand as the best indicators, Garrison said.
  In good news, occupancy in high seasons when children are out of school continue to come in stronger than other times of the year. Additionally, some skiers will look for cheaper resorts far­ther away, even during lower season, to get the best bargain.
  Dirk Beal, director of sales and central reservations for Deer Valley, said higher-end lodg­ing properties are low­ering prices.
  While price infla­tion can be good for consumers, Beal adds that simply filling units hurts higher-end demographic resorts.
  “We’re almost getting to a fire­sale mentality in our lodging industry,” he said.
  In this type of economic cli­mate, value and loyalty are two key factors for resorts.
  “Consumers must spend to sup­port the economy, and our carrot is the ski vacation,” Garrison said. “…What we don’t know is what the winter holds.”
 “Snow is more than weather; it is a state of mind.”
 RALPH GARRISON
 Principal, Mountain Travel Research Project